The current Iran conflict is hugely disruptive to Middle East tourism, but it is also reshaping global travel patterns and shifting travel behavior far beyond. Travelers are certainly being rerouted, but also veering toward closer, perceived‑safer destinations. Longer term, with safety perceptions in the region damaged, there’s a lot of work needed to rebuild confidence in the region, even for travelers thinking of just passing through in transit.
Middle East Travel Was Booming, Until February 2026
It was all going so well. The World Bank reports that, despite the pandemic and the devastation it unleashed on global travel, the Middle East was the only region to beat pre-pandemic levels by 2023—it took other regions far longer. And before the conflict began, regional tourism was still booming—it was the fastest-growing region, as Gulf states continued to successfully sell themselves as the next must-visit destinations.
But that all stopped in late February when thousands of passengers were stranded in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar after the conflict started and the UAE and Qatar were being targeted by drones. By the end of March, 30,000 services had been canceled, and social media and news feeds were inundated with panic and negative sentiment.
In March, the World Travel and Tourism Council reported that the conflict in the Middle East was costing the region’s tourism sector around $600 million a day, mostly due to flight cancellations, airspace closures and general unease about traveling to or through the region.
Gloria Guevara, president of the World Travel & Tourism Council, said that “Even short periods of disruption can quickly translate into significant economic losses for destinations, businesses and workers across the region,” as reported in the Financial Times in March. Beforehand, the same body predicted that the region would benefit from $207 billion of spending by international visitors in 2026.
In April, the BBC reported that the conflict was having a “devastating impact on visitor numbers” in Dubai and that local businesses were struggling.
One of the most visited cities globally, Dubai welcomed almost 20 million international visitors in 2025, but in April, witnessed the closure of outlets, restaurants were operating with minimal staff, and employees were put on unpaid leave. Thousands of scheduled flights were canceled, and sometimes some of the busiest travel hubs came to a halt. Occupancy levels across Dubai hotels dropped to between 15% and 20% of the usual level for this time of year. To many, it’s reminiscent of the pandemic.
At the end of April, a YouGov poll showed how public opinion on travel has shifted towards Dubai, Turkey, the U.S., and Israel. British consumer sentiment towards traveling to these destinations decreased across the board.
An Oxford Economics report predicted that a protracted conflict scenario of more than one to two months, as is currently the case, would lead to losses of around 38 million international visitors in 2026, a 27% year-on-year decline. This amounts to a total loss of $56 billion for the year.
Prolonged Conflict Will Change Our Behavior, Not Just Our Geography
With current political uncertainty and fears around inflation and cost-of-living hikes, data already shows that travelers are changing their plans to accommodate rising prices and uncertainty—notably changing destinations, leaning heavily towards train travel this summer, staycations, and places much closer to home—rather than long-distance plane travel.
Recent data reported in Skift supports this view too: summer demand is moving away from the Middle East and into Spain, southern Europe and the Caribbean.
The damage to not just visiting the region but to traveling through it has been calamitous. It’s true that many passengers are in transit through the Middle East—the region accounts for 14% of global international transit traffic and 5% of global international arrivals.
The Gulf is ideally suited for travel to the Indian subcontinent, the Middle East, China, Europe, and the U.S. It is, in transit terms, quite literally, where east meets west. A drawn-out conflict could have far-reaching implications for the airline industry if travelers no longer want to even pass through the region, let alone visit.
Crucially, the damage over the past two months isn’t just about geographic shifts in the global travel industry. It’s about behavioral changes. Confidence and timing are just as important as destination—many travelers are deferring decisions, waiting to see how things pan out, putting off booking to get a feeling for how things stand.
So, the impact of the conflict on Middle East tourism extends far beyond canceled flights or empty hotels—it could lead to a deeper shift in traveler psychology.
With safety perceptions damaged across Gulf hubs, falling visitor numbers and traveler spending, the region risks long‑term structural losses even after the conflict ends. Ultimately, the recovery of Middle East tourism will depend not only on restored stability but on rebuilding global confidence in the region’s safety, even if just passing through.
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This article was originally published on Forbes.com
